October 23, 2024 – European leaders are moving to fortify their sanctions regime against Russia as fears grow that a possible return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could lead to a rollback of American support for the measures. The EU is working on mechanisms to maintain pressure on Moscow independently, safeguarding its policy against any shifts in Washington’s stance on the war in Ukraine.
Several EU officials have expressed concern that Trump’s campaign rhetoric, which includes suggestions of reducing U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, may result in a softening of sanctions against Russia. As part of its strategy, the EU aims to tighten its restrictions on Russian trade, technology transfers, and financial transactions, while also exploring ways to cut Russia’s access to global markets through secondary sanctions.
The EU is also developing plans to coordinate more closely with other partners, such as Canada and Japan, to ensure sanctions remain effective, even in the event of U.S. disengagement. European nations are particularly focused on preventing sanctions evasion through third countries and have signaled stronger enforcement efforts against businesses that try to circumvent the restrictions.
During his previous administration, Trump had expressed skepticism about NATO and sanctions, and his potential return raises doubts about the continuity of U.S. policies on Ukraine. While Europe has taken the lead in sanctioning Russia, American support has been crucial for keeping up diplomatic and financial pressure. A change in U.S. policy could weaken the collective sanctions effort and embolden Russia.
Some EU leaders worry that Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy might open the door to lifting sanctions in exchange for concessions from Moscow, undermining European efforts to isolate Russia economically and politically.
Despite a push for stronger sanctions, the EU is facing internal challenges. Countries such as Hungary have often opposed tougher measures, complicating decision-making within the bloc. With the possibility of U.S. policy shifts, Europe is also under pressure to maintain unity in its own ranks to ensure sanctions remain robust and effective.
As the U.S. heads into its 2024 presidential election, European leaders are working urgently to shore up their Russia sanctions framework, preparing to navigate an uncertain geopolitical landscape.