Putin’s Strange Leniency (So Far)
Prigozhin’s march on Moscow was halted by an agreement in which those of his Wagner Group troops who had not joined the insurrection may join Russia’s regular army if they so desired.
Those who had taken part would face no prosecution, nor would Prigozhin, who would relocate to Belarus, which is practically a Russian puppet state.
This had the advantage of getting him out of Russia while still having him somewhere (with lots of windows) where he could be actively monitored.
July 7, 2023 Moscow, Kremlin
That was the story, but it doesn’t appear to be the case thus far.
According to the Financial Times, Prigozhin’s private plane (probably with Prigozhin on board) has been travelling between Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Belarus and St. Petersburg (Prigozhin’s home base), which is not what one may assume.
There were even speculations that some Wagner soldiers might relocate to Belarus.
The Belarusians had constructed a facility for 5,000 of them, but no Wagner forces appear to have arrived.
Poland, for its part, is deploying 1,000 soldiers along its border with Belarus.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin appears to have set out to humiliate Prigozhin, revealing some of what was discovered following a raid on his home, including wigs, gold bars, ridiculous-looking photographs of Prigozhin in disguise, a stuffed alligator, and a framed photograph of some severed heads in a desert, most likely a souvenir of Wagner’s exploits in either Syria or Africa.
According to one observer, the images were intended to politically ruin Prigozhin while the Kremlin deliberated what to do with Prigozhin the businessman (the Wagner Group is clearly still valuable to Russia).
According to “analysts and members of the country’s elite,” “the warlord has been given space to deal with his business empire in Russia and tie up loose ends.”
What happens next is anyone’s guess, but this does not appear to be a show of power from Putin, which may be… foolish./NR